Boom-Bust Cycle Not Folly, Just Natural Order of Things

Ten years ago this month, the IPO of internet pioneer Netscape set off the boom that some of us remember with chagrin. In an op-ed piece for the New York Times, Henry Blodget compared the boom to a “financial kindergarten recess, a regrettable free-for-all of idiocy and greed.” But by taking that view of those days - focusing on the “arrogance and punch-drunk frivolity” - we are implying that had we had a little more discipline in the late nineties, the bust (and corresponding embarrassment) could have been avoided.

In fact, Blodget writes, the internet boom and recent maturity has paralleled that of most industries based on revolutionary technology. From canals and railroads to telephones and cars and personal computers, all new technology progresses through four phases of development. The internet is now in the third.

During the boom (phase one), the success of a farsighted few launches a feeding frenzy from others frantic to get in on the trend. Soon a bust (phase two) and subsequent shakeout follow, as too many competitors get into the market, and only a handful prove able to survive. Then follows mature growth and profitability, for an extended period of decades or even a century or more (happily, the longest of the phases and the one in which we are now). Finally, decay, as new technologies appear.

So take heart, Blodget writes. “…Our exuberance helps build industries, however boneheaded it may seem later.”