NPD Group: Planned Back-to-School Spending Flat

Retailers are already gearing up for the onslaught of students and their parents expected in the aisles during the back-to-school shopping season. Unfortunately for retailers, consumers are planning to start shopping later than they did last year and are hoping to spend about the same amount of money they did last year.

In 2005, 43 percent of back-to-school shoppers had already begun shopping by August 1 and 51 percent shopped between August 1 and September 1. By comparison, just 40 percent of consumers plan to shop that early in 2006, while 56 percent anticipate shopping between August 1 and September 1 - an increase of five percent, year over year, according to a survey of over 40,000 shoppers conducted by The NPD Group.

And while they’ll be shopping later, they generally plan to spend on the same levels they did in previous years. In 2006, 21 percent of consumers plan to spend less than they did in 2005, compared to 26 percent who responded similarly last year. Thirty-four percent plan to spend more this year (versus 33 percent in 2005) and 43 percent say they’ll spend about the same amount (versus 41 percent in last year’s survey). Overall, almost half (47 percent) of consumers expect to spend under $250 per child this year, while 28 percent plan to spend between $251 and $500 and seven percent anticipate spending more than $1,000.

Mass merchants can once again expect to take the lion’s share of back-to-school purchases this year, 81 percent of consumers plan to shop there, while 45 percent plan to shop office-supply stores and 38 percent will head to chain stores.

There’s also good news for department stores: 27 percent of consumers expect to shop at these types of establishments - a three percentage point increase over the previous year. Footwear retailers are also poised to capture more back-to-school sales this year than last. While 27 percent of consumers planned to shop for shoes at footwear retailers last year, this year 29 percent plan to do so.

Other than school supplies, apparel tops the list of what consumers plan to purchase for back-to-school this year. More consumers plan to purchase clothing this year, compared to last year (71 percent for 2006 and 66 percent for 2005). Planned purchases of footwear are also on the rise (60 percent this year versus 53 percent last year). Other popular planned purchases this year were more in line with plans last year, including cosmetics and other beauty supplies (flat versus last year, at 13 percent), notebooks and other school supplies (79 percent versus 81 percent) and school bags and knapsacks (45 percent versus 41 percent). Combined electronics (computers, printers, cell phones, MP3 players and DVD players/recorders) shows the greatest signs of increased spending with 36 percent planning to purchase in this category, compared to 25 percent last year.