Prediction: New Magazine Launches to Plummet 17 Percent

The overall number of new magazines launching in 2006 is expected to plummet 17 percent from last year, marking the first decrease since 2001, predicts Samir Husni, a University of Mississippi journalism professor who tracks the industry, according to New York Business.

He also predicts that the percentage of magazines launched by major publishers, as opposed to entrepreneurs, will also drop, falling to 3 percent of the total, as compared to a high of 8 percent in recent years.

The reason for the change stems from the internet, which is drawing readers away from print in dramatic fashion this year, according to the article. Print is also seeing a flat advertising market, as well as increased prices in subscriber acquisition, production and postal prices. Portfolio, a new magazine from Conde Nast which will hit newsstands in April backed by a $100 million push, may just be the last of the multimillion dollar magazine launches.

Samir says the publishing model has changed, and if Conde Nast hadn’t had Portfolio in the works for more than a year the company probably wouldn’t have planned such an elaborate launch.

For the next three to five years, the magazine industry’s focus will be on multiplatform plays, according Peter Kreisky, chairman of Kreisky Media Consultancy.

However, Conde Nast says it won’t back away from new launches when the content is right. Portfolio won’t be hurt in the same way that news-oriented magazines such as Time and BusinessWeek have been because, as a monthly, it will be offering more in-depth articles. That type of content, which is more difficult to find for free online, will be less challenged in print than content that’s readily available for free, says David Carey, group president and publisher of the Conde Nast business media group.