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Nielsen has released its first standardized data on average commercial minutes, and there were no big surprises in store, according to Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer of Turner Broadcasting, writes MediaPost.
The numbers appear about the same as what broadcast, cable and syndicating programmers had already seen when they processed data through Nielsen’s Npower service.
When the new ratings are combined with live-plus-three-day DVR ratings, however - the currency agreed-upon by the Big Four networks and the major media buying agencies for negotiations during the upfront - the Big Four networks are seeing a slight bump, Media Life reports.
When the two sides reached the agreement to use a combination of average commercial-minute ratings and live-plus-three-day ratings, the feeling was that the gains from the three-day ratings would offset any losses from using commercial ratings instead of program ratings.
But it turns out that there was relatively no loss between program ratings and average commercial-minute ratings. “The difference between live and live-plus-ACM ratings is roughly flat for primetime,” says John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest. Commercial-ratings retention of broadcast programs is between 95 percent to 97 percent - but anywhere from three to five percentage points lower on cable networks.
As for live-plus-three-day viewing, it turns out that 99 percent of viewers watch a prime time program within three days of the original broadcast, which boosts the networks’ ratings over live-only data.
Forecasters have predicted that ad spend in the upfront will increase about 3 percent over last year. In a recent Media Life poll, buyers said they expect to see expenditures increase about 1 percent to 3 percent.
MarketingCharts offers some of the relevant data tables.
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