Cable Execs Anxious, C3 Ratings Impossible to Predict for Fall Season

Data from the summer months using the new C3 currency (commercial ratings combined with live-plus-three-day program ratings) may have network and cable executives, as well as media buyers, nibbling their fingernails. Cable executives, in particular, are concerned about how the new ratings will fall out when the fall season is in full swing, writes Mediaweek.

That’s because the C3 ratings were still untested when they were used as currency during the upfront, and it may turn out that some sellers took the easy money by inking deals based on what may turn out to be grossly inflated CPMs, rather than holding back inventory and adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

So far this summer, it has been nearly impossible to predict if the C3 ratings will be higher or lower than the old program ratings. Some shows, such as NBC’s The Singing Bee, lose GRPs at a rate of nearly 7 percent, according to MediaPost. On the other hand, Family Guy on Fox goes from a 3.07 using the old live program ratings to a 3.13 using C3.

“The smart ones didn’t write any more business than they can handle, but a lot of guys maybe stretched it a bit farther than what was prudent,” says John Swift, executive vp, managing partner, PHD North America. “There’s a sense that they may have risked more exposure than they can really afford to.”

Of course, that’s the gamble inherent in the upfront.

The scatter market, which has been very strong over the last five quarters, is compounding the uncertainty. One ad sales chief says that the scatter market for the fourth quarter is so strong that he’s passing on fourth quarter scatter right now because the pricing is lower than “what I think we can get if we hold out for more. And this time of year, that’s something I’ve never done before.”