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Magna Global has sent an advisory to clients encouraging them to hold their judgments on the new prime time television season until more time has passed and substantive patterns emerge.
The advisory, from Magna’s executive vp - audience analysis Steve Sternberg, says the trade and consumer press misrepresent initial results and focus on the wrong ratings data, writes MediaPost. The press “often tends to believe its own buzz-generating reporting (and what people tell them are high internet-buzz shows). But as we’ve demonstrated time and again, pre-season buzz seldom correlates with new series success,” he wrote.
He says that there have so far been no surprises regarding the performance of new series, and that only one show, Bionic Woman on NBC, has even slightly outperformed agency share projections.
Sternberg suggested that clients focus only on three relevant metrics:
–Live program data is important as a basis for comparison, because it is what was used last season.
–Live plus seven days is important because it gives an idea of how much DVR use is taking place, and because it gives an idea how much total viewing for the week is taking place.
–C3, or commercial minutes combined with live-plus-three-days of viewing, is important because it is the currency that was used for most buys during the upfront.
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