Writers Strike Puts Stranglehold on Local TV Market

If the writers strike goes on much longer, spot TV inventory, already tight, may simply be gone, some buyers believe.

Prices in local markets are already rising, and political campaigns are buying up what’s available, writes Media Life. Meanwhile, program repeats caused by the strike are causing ratings in some dayparts to fall below those guaranteed by the networks. But with inventory so tight, there may not be enough available spots to give advertisers in order to make up for ratings shortfalls.

As more shows go into repeats because of the strike, ratings will continue to slip. Advertisers will need more spots to compensate for lower ratings, in order to achieve the reach they want.

Media buyers may eventually shift money into radio and the internet.

Prime time television, which had stockpiled some original episodes in advance of the strike and which has unscripted programming to fall back on, will be better off than daytime - which will be in reruns quite soon - and late night, which is already in repeats.

The question mark in spot TV is political advertising, as demand for political ads is always difficult to predict, says Kathy Crawford, president of local broadcast at MindShare. Political advertising often comes in at the last minute, eating up great chunks of inventory. If that happens, it will further tighten the market.

Another problem caused by the strike is the fact that measuring ratings will be tricky. Local TV is still measured by the old diary system in most markets, and buyers don’t get the results until weeks later. Local buyers will have to use their best guesses as to what affect the strike is having on local ratings. Their guesses will be based, in part, on what is happening with national ratings, but that will be tricky, as well.

“You’re going to see so much juggling of the prime time lineup that it’ll be hard to attribute [ratings declines] to repeats, because they’ll be moving everything around and bringing back shows that they weren’t intending to bring back,” says Charley Brough, vp and group media director at Right Place Media in Lexington, Ky.