With retail growth at its lowest rate in three to four years, and with auto and home-related categories particularly slumping, radio may be looking at declines of as much as 2 percent for 2008.
Radio is dependent on local advertising for 80 percent of its revenue, and local media is more sensitive to retail sales and consumer spending, writes Mediaweek. That could cause radio revenue to slip below $20 billion - excluding nonspot sales - for the first time since 2002, per SNL Kagan.
These are the worst times for radio since the 1950s, when radio faced an economic recession, the Korean War and the advent of TV. Unless the year comes with some surprises, the industry will see its eighth year of slow-to-no-growth, says Jim Boyle, analyst at CL King & Associates.
In December, a Wachovia analyst said that zero growth may be the best-case-scenario for the medium.
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