GroupM: Ad Spend to Increase Nearly 7% to $479B in ‘08

Global advertising spending in measured media is expected to show 6.8 percent year-over-year gain, reaching $479 billion in 2008, compared with 2007’s 6.0 percent YOY increase, according to GroupM’s “This Year, Next Year” study, writes MarketingCharts.

(See table of global forecast, by region.)

That forecast growth rate is essentially unchanged from GroupM’s previous estimates, though at the time global spending was forecast to reach $462 billion.

Television and the internet will drive global ad growth, representing the vast majority of additional new investment in 2008, according to GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith, who oversees “This Year, Next Year” reports.

Portions of the study pertaining to the U.S. ad market were released in late ‘07, predicting that U.S. ad spend would increase 3.7 percent, to $168.8 billion, in 2008; some global ad market forecast information was also released at the time, but GroupM this month issued additional information (see below).

The report is part of GroupM’s media and marketing forecasting series, drawn from data supplied by holding company WWP’s worldwide resources in advertising, public relations, market research, and specialist communications.

“Encircling economic gloom has not affected GroupM’s view of marketing investment in 2008, which is supported by events including the American election, the Beijing Olympics, and the European soccer championship,” said GroupM futures director Adam Smith, who oversees all “This Year, Next Year” reports.

“Expectations of media growth in North America, Western Europe and Japan, which combined represent nearly three-quarters of the global media economy, are in any case conservative.”

Additional information released by GroupM:

• Television will account for 50 percent of 2008’s new ad dollars; the medium dominates advertising in emerging markets and is the leading beneficiary of ad spend in the U.S. elections and Olympics
• The internet will account for 28 percent of new investment, leading advertising growth in the developed world, particularly Western Europe; however, the medium is much less important in emerging markets, which rely on TV advertising.
• Western Europe is the second-largest media bloc (after the US/North America), accounting for some 27 percent of total media investment.
• Western Europe’s contribution to 2008 ad growth is pegged at 16 percent, well below expected economic growth.
• Spending in China is expected to grow 25 percent, down from 2007’s 29 percent growth.
• China is expected to contribute 21 percent of new media dollars - the biggest contributor - ahead of the US, which is expected to contribute 20 percent of new media dollars, followed by Russia and Brazil with 6 percent each.

Additional info issued by GroupM includes forecast ad revenues for main marketing services - direct marketing, market research, public relations and sponsorship: See table of the marketing services forecast.

Marketing services are growing as fast as internet-assisted media and are almost as large; sponsorship is the fastest-growing outlet, behind the internet, according to “This Year, Next Year.”