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ABC may have a tough time keeping its No. 1 slot in the upcoming fall season. Fox, which has handily beat the competition in recent years in the later part of the season thanks in large part to hits like American Idol and 24, may give ABC a run for its money.
John Spiropoulos, vp and group research director at MediaVest, says that Fox will have a strong fourth quarter and could be “pushing ABC for 18-49 bragging rights,” while Sam Armando, senior vp and director of video research at Starcom, says Fox is “starting in a position of strength,” writes Media Life.
Armando says the other networks aren’t necessarily in bad shape, but he isn’t seeing programs that will pull them ahead.
Last fall, Fox - though it was up 13 percent in 18-49s - tied NBC for No. 3. Its third-place slot was barely behind CBS and just a half rating point behind ABC. This fall, the network has reworked its schedule to make it as competitive as possible every night. It will also air Fringe, from Lost creator J.J. Abrams - a highly anticipated show.
The network’s strongest night will be Tuesday, with its most-watched scripted show House, as well as Fringe. On Mondays, ABC has Dancing with the Stars, the No. 1 show of the night, while CBS will have strong comedies and CSI: Miami. But Fox will be competitive, with Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and Prison Break.
On Wednesday, Fox may struggle, airing Bones and Til Death, along with new sitcom Do Not Disturb. But other networks also have weak spots on Wednesdays, and at mid-season Fox will get its typical enormous boost with the American Idol results show.
Perhaps anticipating tough competition, ABC has trotted out its stable of stars in a campaign promoting its entire fall lineup. In the past, networks pulled together promotions featuring their stars at the start of each season, but such efforts fell out of favor in recent years as networks began to focus more on particular nights of the week or specific shows. Marla Provencio, evp of marketing for ABC Entertainment, describes the campaign as something the network hasn’t done “for a long time.”
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