- Internet usage in the U.S. dipped about 20% during the Sunday night Super Bowl broadcast, reports Multichannel News. That compared with an average Sunday, and despite the "Social Super Bowl" hype. NBC’s online video feed of the game took 6.2% of all downstream broadband traffic at 9 p.m.
- Google Offers, the Internet giant’s answer to Groupon, has just launched in its 40th major city. With this week’s launch in Oklahoma City, Okla., and Omaha, Neb., plus ten cities in the two weeks prior (including Boston and Washington, DC), Google Offers has aggressively expanded in just six months. As WebProNews describes, Groupon turned down an acquisition offer from Google.
- Barclays Capital is guessing that an Apple HDTV, priced at $1,500, could quickly take 5% of the HDTV market—bringing with it the accompanying Apple ad platform. As MobileMarketingWatch describes, the Apple TV would be less of a television, than a delivery vehicle for gaming, video, content delivery and apps, all of which presumably will be funded in part by iAds.
- The Washington Post yesterday launched free iPhone and apps for its Facebook-powered Social Reader app, reports the Poynter Institute. With the apps, users have “mobile-optimized access” to articles that participating Facebook friends have read, not just from the Post but from more than 30 participating publications. The Post claims 11 million people are using the app on Facebook.com.
- Digital magazine publishers may see a plateau on eReaders, eMarketer forecasts, and based on stats from Verso Advertising and Burst Media. While almost 16% of U.S. Internet users surveyed in December, 2011, owned an eReader, those who plan to buy one is declining. The good news—for marketers anyway—is that eReaders are losing ground to tablet computers, with their larger screens and higher processing capacity. Tablets are expected to see double-digit growth, reaching 89.5 million users in 2014. However the eReader/tablet horserace ends, the mobile ad opportunity is still a powerful one.
Research: Three Formats Dominate Online Ad Spend
While the U.S. online ad spend will approach $40 billion in 2012, just three formats will dominate that spend, forecasts eMarketer: search, banners, and video adverts. Those three formats will capture 80% of the online ad spending through 2016.
Search will dominate, hovering just below 50% for the next five years, though it will lose some ground to online video; that format will see the highest persistent growth in spending, and will nearly double in percent of total spend from 7.9% in 2012 to 15% in 2016. Banners will retain their #2 status, with 23.4% share of total spend in 2012, and 20.5% in 2016, also losing ground to video ads.
Video ads are expected to grow by 55% in spending this year, after a healthy growth of 42.1% in 2011. That growth (the highest in a single year through 2012) is fueled in part by the 2012 election and summer Olympic Games. (Consider the PAC and campaign ads you’ve seen already.)
Each of these three formats fits nicely into the mobile format, and mobile display ads (chiefly banner and video) are expected to grow by 93.5% to $861.7 in 2016.
eMarketer has projected that U.S. online ad spending will grow 23.3% in 2012 to nearly $40 billion, and nearly $53 billion in 2013. This will make 2012 the first year in which online ad spends will surpass the total spent on print ads, with $39.5 billion online versus $33.8 billion in magazines and newspapers.
Super Bowl Mobile Traffic: Mobile Gaining First-Screen Status in Sports
Super Bowl viewers Tweeted, checked in on mobile sports sites and furiously commiserated on Facebook; but they took a break to watch Madonna’s half-time show.
Jumptap monitored traffic on its mobile ad network between 4 p.m. and midnight. Traffic on its mobile sports channel spiked after kickoff. This is evidence of a “clear trend of multi-screen usage” among sports viewers, one reason why “ESPN is now calling mobile the ‘first screen.’”
Jumptap recorded a dip of 47% in traffic during Madonna’s half-time show, which puzzled Jumptap blogger mduffy: “For me, this was the time to catch up on email,” or perhaps to share outrage over singer M.I.A.’s middle digit offense. Jumptap saw mobile traffic dip across its entire network, by 20%, not just on sports sites. The dip was closer to 40% in Boston and New York.
But traffic spiked at 9:45 p.m. on Jumptap’s sports channel by 275%, when the Giants won.
Mobile devices, long thought the “third screen” after television and computers, are climbing to first-screen status. ESPN’s mobile audience passed 20 million in 2011, with viewing time on mobile devices up 45% over 2010. “[Mobile] is the primary way we reach an audience,” said ESPN Mobile’s VP and General Manager Michael Bayle at the January MediaPost conference.
Analysts: 2012 Ad Spends to be “Decent” In TV, Digital, Down in Magazines
Ad Age is predicting a pretty good, if not stellar 2012 in which digital and TV spends will be up, but magazines down.
Vincent Letang, who is executive VP and head of global forecasting at Magna Global, attributed what growth there will be—about 10.9% across all media—largely to 2012 being both an Olympics and an election year. Without them, “Some would have predicted probably a worse outlook” for 2012. But with those two powerful drivers, TV ad revenue should increase by 6.8% this year. Time will tell, with upfront spending just getting going. Thusfar only General Motors (GM) has canceled upon a significant percent of its commitments, at just shy of 50%.
TV ad revenue should increase 6.8% this year, once again, attributable once election season and the Olympics have their effect, according to Magna Global's forecast on Jan. 23. The past several weeks have been strong, but the second-quarter scatter market will ultimately provide the best indication for upfront spending, said Mel Berning, exec VP-ad sales at A&E Networks.
Ad pages fell about 8.4% in January and February issues, year-over-year (YOY), and magazines overall can expect a 5.2% decline in 2012 ad revenue, Magna Global predicts. But there are signs of health in the digital quarter, with at least one media provider (Complex Media) projecting firth-quarter revenues doubling over Q4 2012. So while print journals will see a decline, their digital properties—and they all have them—are likely to help them tread water.
Grammy Awards Partner with CBS for Three Days of Streaming Programming
Beginning Friday, the Grammy Awards will launch “Grammy Live,” three days of live-streaming and social media, reports GigaOM. The lineup includes anchored behind-the-scenes coverage from correspondents like Alison Haislip (former correspondent for The Voice) and one-time MTV Newser John Norris.
Last year, the Grammy Awards partnered with YouTube, using its then-in-beta live-streaming service for digital delivery. All told, the partnership was a success, but “Partnering with our network partner affords us enhanced opportunities,” “Grammy Live” executive producer Peter Anton told GigaOm; among them, more on-air mentions in prime time for the “Grammy Live” programming.
“Grammy Live” is promising an “exclusive VIP pass to all the excitement and glamour of GRAMMY Weekend, with an “insider’s view into the hottest…events,” such as the MusicCares Person of the Year event honoring Paul McCartney. But as GigaOM describes, there’s only so live the broadcast can get: each live performance during the ceremony must be OK’d by the artist and rights holders, meaning those performances are on a delay without any guarantee. Likely, viewers will tune into the awards on CBS but enjoy the remaining nearly 72 hours of programming online.
Research: 70% Of Tablet Owners Want to Buy through Digital Magazine Ads
Fully 70% of tablet computer owners want to be able to buy items by clicking on digital magazine ads, reports GfK MRI. Another 70% say they like electronic ads that are personalized to their interests. GfK MRI is the consumer-centric market research firm, which regularly polls its iPanel, composed exclusively of tablet computer and eReader owners.
GfK MRI polled tablet owners who read a magazine on their devices in the last 30 days with several digital-magazine related topics. Additional findings include:
- Nearly three-quarters (72%) of tablet owners who would prefer all digital magazines to be formatted in the same way
- A majority of tablet magazine readers (67%) say that, if available, they would rather read an electronic version of a magazine than a paper version
- Still, 65% say it's more satisfying to read a magazine the traditional way
- Almost half (48%) of tablet magazine readers say electronic magazines take too long to download, 46% say that videos in digital versions of magazines are "just a gimmick" and 43% claim they find it hard to search for magazines they want to read on their tablets
So tablet makers have a few obstacles to overcome before digital magazines offer a fully-satisfying experience, and thus, an entirely effective ad platform. "Although magazine publishers are experimenting with different formats in order to differentiate their digital brands, this is not necessarily resonating with digital readers adopting the new tablet technology," said Risa Becker, SVP Research at GfK MRI.
Still—with a full 70% of digital magazine readers wanting to buy through the format, advertisers have an opportunity to reach some attractive demographics (see chart for tablet/eReader ownership by age).
comScore Data: Newspaper Websites Gaining, Holding Interest
Newspaper websites in Q4 2011 averaged more than 111 million monthly unique visitors (MUVs), up by more than 6 million compared to the same period in 2010, reports the Newspaper Association of America (NAA), citing comScore data. Fully 63% of adult Internet users visited newspaper websites.
A comarison of newspaper website usage data year-over-year (YOY) revealed that average daily visitors increased by more than 3 million, or nearly 15%. Unique visitors increased nearly 6%, while total minutes increased 14%.
The comScore data demonstrate “The growing appeal of newspapers’ online content,” said NAA President and CEO Carolline Little, “particularly for engaged, informed and affluent users whom advertisers…seek to reach.” As Little described, 70% of Internet users with household income (HHI) above $60,000 are reached by newspaper websites, and 75% when looking at HHI above $100,000.
Other key findings about Q4 2011: Among people 45 to 54, newspaper website percentage reach climed to 67%. In the 18 to 34 demographic, website reach remained at or above 60%.
Newspapers are answering these numbers with a steady stream of what NAA calls “innovative strategies designed to maintain and build their digital audiences.” For example, the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. launched animated editorials, and the New York Times launched a fashion-focused niche app.
“During all of 2011, the percentage reach of Internet users enjoyed by newspaper websites never dipped below 61 percent,” Little said. “Web-based and other digital platforms at newspaper are capturing—and holding—attention in the marketplace.”
Signs of hope
Editor & Publisher described 2011 as “the lowest point yet” for newspaper ad revenue," with 2011 revenues of $24 billion, down from the record high $49.4 billion in 2005. E&P observed that, however important a digital strategy appears to be, it has yet to fulfill its potential in newspaper revenue. “Sure, digital advertising climbed 8.3%, but digital still contributes only 14.3% to overall publisher revenue. But the newspaper industry is clearly aware of the trend, and 2012 will likely see the digital contribution approaching 17%. E&P opined that newspaper must compete on content, and the papers are treating apps, animation and streaming video as exactly that—content—if not the content they are used to providing.
Mobile Ads: Mobile Becoming the Norm, Apple/Android Wrestle on Click-Throughs and Quality
Research by mobile ad network solutions provider Jumptap suggests that mobile devices will become the norm for Internet access, and that advertisers must take a cross-market approach to the Apple and Android operating systems: they must cater to both.
Tablet network traffic jumped 229% over an average projected for the day after Christmas, based on historical network traffic, Jumptap reported in its just-released January MobileSTAT report.
January 2, 2012 also saw a bump, with a 263% traffic increase (most likely from recipients uploading holiday photos and getting familiar with their devices).
Jumptap found that the Kindle Fire experienced the greatest tablet growth throughout December. The new device held 10% of tablet market share on December 1 and finished the year with 30% market share. This year-end surge suggests a 2012 trend for lower-priced tablets.
Mobile to overtake desktops, laptops?
"Mobile is quickly becoming the primary access point of the internet. Advertisers have seen this movie before with PC based digital advertising and are allocating mobile budgets that are larger and larger," said Paran Johar, Chief Marketing Officer, Jumptap. "The surge in tablet adoption rates and rise in mobile subscribers support the expectations that mobile will eventually outpace online."
In 2011, the mobile ad industry broke the billion dollar barrier for the first time. This month analysts at eMarketer changed their predictions about mobile ad spending growth, estimating the market would be roughly $6.5B by 2014, much higher than their September 2010 estimate of $2.5B by 2014. Jumptap believes even that revised estimate is conservative.
Android versus iOS: Neither can be ignored
In 2011 Android and iOS continued to battle for mobile OS share. When the dust cleared, Android had beaten iOS. The January MobileSTAT found that Android's share grew 21% (38% in December 2010 to 59% in December 2011), while iOS dropped 7% points (29% in December 2010 to 22% in December 2011). Still, iOS tripled in overall traffic on the Jumptap network of more than 95 million unique visitors, while Android more than quadrupled. The lesson to marketers, says Jumptap, is that both operating systems are growing at break-neck speeds and a cross-platform approach is essential to reach their audiences.
But, Android mobile ads and apps can be improved, the research suggests. While Android’s share is increasing, its click-through rate is dropping, compared to iOS. The latest Android 3.x has a .59% CTR, while iOS 5 has about .9%.
Apple earns that higher rate, says Jumptap’s Johar. "With every new iPhone release, he says, Apple's designers "seem to be optimizing the user experience. It's no secret that they are obsessed with design and usability. Their obsession with functionality and the user interface is paying off."
The challenge to Android is that it retains little control over the use of its ecosystem. It licenses out its operating system and device manufacturers customize it. Its open technology enables developers to create both elegant and irritating, poorly-working apps.
Facebook Releases Ad Revenue: Huge and Growing, Arguably Justified
As required in its IPO filing, Facebook has released its ad revenue, for 2009-2011. Ads brought in $3.2 billion in 2011, a year-over-year (YOY) growth of 69% from $1.9 billion in 2010, leading Business Insider’s Jim Edwards to declare, “Wow. This is a massive ad sales business.”
In terms of volume, there was a 42% increase in the number of ads delivered in 2011, and, an 18% increase in the price of ads.
In its prospectus, Facebook described its value to advertisers: “Advertisers can engage with more than 800 million monthly active users (MAUs) on Facebook or subsets of our users based on information they have chosen to share with us such as their age, location, gender, or interests. We offer advertisers a unique combination of reach, relevance, social context, and engagement to enhance the value of their ads.” In terms of growth, Facebook claims those 845 million MAUs as of December 31, 2011, is a YOY increase of 39% as compared 2010. Facebook went on to describe how it creates value for advertisers, with—
- Relevance, as ”Advertisers can specify [user subsets by] demographic factors and specific interests that they have chosen to share with us on Facebook or by using the Like button around the web.”
- Social Context, which highlights a user’s friends’ connections with a particular brand or business (e.g., that a friend Liked a product or checked in at a restaurant). We believe that users find marketing messages more engaging when they include social context."
- Engagement, as the shift to the more social web “creates new opportunities for businesses to engage with interested customers. Any brand or business can create a Facebook Page to stimulate an ongoing dialog with our users.”
The Economist summed it up this way in a poll: “It collects huge amounts of data about its 800m plus users, can serve up creepily well-targeted ads.”
But does it work?
Advertisers use Likes as a kind of social media “Nielsen rating,” but the ratings can be disappointing. In terms of engagement, only slightly more than 1% of Facebook users who “Like” brands like Procter & Gamble or Coca-Cola actually engage with the brands, according to research. And engagement can include reposting a clever ad from YouTube—good for branding, but without measurable sales.
Earlier this month, TBG Digital (TBG) in its Global Facebook Advertising Report observed “considerable savings” were possible in cost-per-clicks (CPCs), up 45%, for advertisers on Facebook. But, those advertisers must keep the clicker within Facebook: directing a visitor away from Facebook and onto the advertiser’s own website drives up the CPC.
So the ad revenue is impressive, as are the claims. But as an effective ad platform, Facebook still defies analysis. Likely it will have to come up with more solid figures for its annual investor calls.
WSJ Live Launches YouTube Channel
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) today launched its dedicated YouTube channel, reports Investors Business Daily. First among its advertisers visible to YouTube viewers: the Ron Paul campaign (with a banner ad and 13-minute streaming infomercial), the United Arab Emirates and Boeing.
Key among the on-demand content is its “Off Duty” lifestyle show, based on the section of the same name in WSJ’s Saturday editions. WSH reporter Wendy Bounds will host “Off Duty,” airing every business day at 6pm EST, then available on demand. WSJ is treating YouTube as another distribution channel for its WSJ Live, which offers four hours of live programming per day. WSJ Live is available already on the iPad and Smart TVs. The WSJ Live app is also broadly available, via Apple TV, Google TV and Roku. WSJ claims its Live app for iPad has been downloaded more than 160,000 times since launch in September 2011. A quick check of the Apple iTunes store reveals a five-star rating for the app.
While the “Off Duty” segment is new, it joins several existing segments including Digits, Mean Street, Markets Hub and Opinion.
