Ad Age is predicting a pretty good, if not stellar 2012 in which digital and TV spends will be up, but magazines down.
Vincent Letang, who is executive VP and head of global forecasting at Magna Global, attributed what growth there will be—about 10.9% across all media—largely to 2012 being both an Olympics and an election year. Without them, “Some would have predicted probably a worse outlook” for 2012. But with those two powerful drivers, TV ad revenue should increase by 6.8% this year. Time will tell, with upfront spending just getting going. Thusfar only General Motors (GM) has canceled upon a significant percent of its commitments, at just shy of 50%.
TV ad revenue should increase 6.8% this year, once again, attributable once election season and the Olympics have their effect, according to Magna Global's forecast on Jan. 23. The past several weeks have been strong, but the second-quarter scatter market will ultimately provide the best indication for upfront spending, said Mel Berning, exec VP-ad sales at A&E Networks.
Ad pages fell about 8.4% in January and February issues, year-over-year (YOY), and magazines overall can expect a 5.2% decline in 2012 ad revenue, Magna Global predicts. But there are signs of health in the digital quarter, with at least one media provider (Complex Media) projecting firth-quarter revenues doubling over Q4 2012. So while print journals will see a decline, their digital properties—and they all have them—are likely to help them tread water.
A Decade of Super Bowl Ad Stats: Ad Spend Reaches $1.72 Billion
From 2002 through 2011, the Super Bowl game has generated $1.72 billion of network advertising sales from more than 125 marketers, reports Kantar Media.
Leading the pack is Anheuser-Busch InBev with $239.1 million in ads. The company has advertised in every Super Bowl for the past decade, as have two other top spenders, PepsiCo and Walt Disney Co. The top five advertisers of the past decade collectively spent $636.6 million, for 37% of total advertising revenue.
The average rate for a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl increased 40 percent over past decade, for $3.1 million in 2010. NBC is asking $3.5 million for a 30-second unit in 2012, but the price will vary based on when the ad runs and if the advertiser opts for a larger package that includes spots in the pre-game and/or post-game coverage.
Kantar Media bemoans the rise in “clutter,” as the volume of commercial time has crept up. The Fox broadcast of the 2011 Super Bowl included 46 minutes of network ads, second only to 2010 with 104 minutes. That commercial time included paying sponsors, NFL messages, commercial messages from the NFL and Fox ads promoting its own shows.
About 20% of advertisers are first-timers, but in 2011 that dropped to 14%, with only four new marketers (Best Buy, Carmax, Groupon and Salesforce.com). Only three first timers have confirmed ad slots for 2012, being Century 21, Dannon and Relativity Media, a film studio.
Interestingly, the Super Bowl is attracting not just giants like PepsiCo and Disney, but smaller marketers as well. In 2011, nearly one-third of advertisers spent more than 10% of their full-media budgets. Careerbuilder spent $3.1 million, for 31% of its budget, and Salesforce.com spent 23%.
Google Display Ads Reach $5 Billion, Double from 2010
Google CEO Larry Page in a Thursday analyst call reported that its display ad business has doubled since 2010. Display ads include network and YouTube ads, which has reached a $5 billion per year business. The ramification according to AdAge is that Google is becoming less dependent on search advertising alone.
Google went on to report that its DoubleClick ad exchange had reached year-over-year (YOY) 130% growth, driven in part by its precise category targeting (e.g., hybrid car buyers and adventure travelers). Brand advertisers are flocking to YouTube’s TrueView format, which emulates the pay-per-click model of AdWords AdSense. Three of those brand advertisers are Ford, GM and L’Oreal.
Bloomberg BusinessWeek observes that Google’s expansion into new markets and onto mobile devices, where it charges less per click, contributed to an 8% drop in its average pay-per-click.
NBC Raises Prices, Sells Out Super Bowl Ad Spots, Goes Streaming
NBC Universal has announced that it has sold out its ad spots for Super Bowl XLVI on February 5: it did so in November, but has just made the announcement. As Ad Age reports, two sponsors (unnamed) are looking to back out of their contracts. The lineup of sponsors includes such heavyweights as Annheuser-Busch, Audi, Century 21, PepsiCo, Volkswagen and Toyota.
In a Super Bowl first, the game will be streamed via the NBC website and Verizon’s NFL Mobile application. There will be fewer online ads, which is “how you would expect the digital experience to be,” said NBC Sports Group Senior VP of Sales and Marketing Seth Winter. Average price for the TV spots is $3.5 million, representing a significant increase over earlier prices. But with it, each sponsor purchased a package (each different) which may include a spot on the digital stream; on the next Olympics broadcast; or some other NBC Sports broadcast or stream. Winter told Ad Age that he’s “Not quite sure that we have pushed the boundaries of what a Super Bowl ad is worth."
Magna: 2012 Mediaspend to Grow 4.7 Percent
IPG's Magna predicts that global media spending will hit $427 billion in 2012, up 4.7 percent from estimated 2011 mediaspend. That is a 0.5 percent decrease from the firm's previous 2012 estimates.
US media forecasts are slightly less rosy, at 3.7 percent growth to $153 billion. Interestingly, China may pop up to the second largest ad market in 2012, partly due to its own organic growth, and partly due to unexpected adspend declines in tsunami-hit Japan.
Two other ad giants published 2012 forecasts that were equally or slightly more optimistic than Magna's newest prediction. Zenith Optimedia predicts 4.7 percent growth. GroupM predicts that the Olympics will add still more momentum, driving world spend to $522 billion, a 6.4 percent increase over 2011.
Report: Social Media Grows 25%, Now 16% of All Online Time
The internet continues to grow at the fastest rate of any medium, at an average of 14.2% a year between 2010 and 2013. Display is the fastest-growing segment, growing by 16.4% a year, driven mainly by online video and social media, according to ZenithOptimedia, "Global Ad Expenditure to Return to Pre-recession Peak Level."
In the US, social media use has jumped 25% over the last year, and now accounts for 16% of all time spent online, and 34% of display impressions. Paid search is growing by 14.4% a year, but its growth is being slightly restrained by the shift in search behaviour from desktop to mobile devices, where costs are currently lower.
Television is the next fastest-growing medium, at 6.2% a year. It is also the largest contributor to global growth, accounting for 49% of new ad dollars between 2010 and 2013. Television’s share of the global ad market has risen steadily over time and shows no sign of reaching a plateau: it attracted 40.1% of spend in 2010, up from 37.3% in 2005, and we forecast it to attract 41.4% in 2013.
Television ad expenditure are forecast to grow by US$35.4 billion, from US$179.6 to US$215.0 billion between 2010 and 2013.
Chart: Global Ad Spending Change, All Major Media, 2009-2013
About this chart: Source: ZenithOptimedia, "Global Ad Expenditure to Return to Pre-recession Peak Level," July 2011. ZenithOptimedia is a global media services agencies with 218 offices in 72 countries. ZenithOptimedia is part of Publicis Groupe the world’s third largest communications group, the world’s second largest media counsel and buying group, and a global leader in digital and healthcare communications. Advertising Expenditure Forecasts are published quarterly.
Chart: North American Advertising Expenditure, All Major Media, 2009-2013
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About this chart: Source: ZenithOptimedia, "Global Ad Expenditure to Return to Pre-recession Peak Level," July 2011. ZenithOptimedia is a global media services agencies with 218 offices in 72 countries. ZenithOptimedia is part of Publicis Groupe the world’s third largest communications group, the world’s second largest media counsel and buying group, and a global leader in digital and healthcare communications. Advertising Expenditure Forecasts are published quarterly.
How to Measure CNN Streaming? | Loyality Issues Create Chance for Daily Deal Companies
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Audience measurement of CNN’s cable television content now available online and on mobile devices will be difficult, writes Ad Week. Nielsen is the industry standard for measuring audience in the linear television world, but it does not yet offer a similar ratings service for video viewing on mobile platforms. Thus, CNN won't have an independent read on number of viewers accessing their content via iPhone or iPad (and thus no concrete viewership number it can use to sell ads against).
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Video ad networks have had some success with optimization and targeting, but video inventory pricing has not been affected too greatly. Average CPM for video advertising was $10-$20 in 2007-2008, and is still around $10-$15 in 2010-2011. Publishers still hold most of the cards when it comes to the economics of online video inventory -- and despite the demand, they're exercising restraint when it comes to creating new inventory, reports MediaPost News. This discipline extends to withholding unsold inventory to maintain a price floor.
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Ahead of the August release of action-comedy 30 Minutes or Less, Columbia Pictures has partnered with social media site foursquare to create a program for users to interact with the film online and in the real world. In the most expansive foursquare badge program tied to a motion picture, the company said. The check-ins include pizza parlors and banks, as well as food trucks, screenings, and movie theaters on opening weekend, where users can unlock the 30 Minutes or Less badge.
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Brand loyalty is a problem for daily coupon sites, with the average consumer subscribing to 3.5 daily deal sites these days, according to panelists at the BIA/Kelsey’s Deals 3D Daily Deals and Group Buying conference. And what the means is that companies such as iCoupon Online, Savings.com, and others have as much opportunity to make their services competitive with LivingSocial or Groupon, writes Paid Content.
Chart: Magazine Ad Revenue and Ad Pages, Year-over-Year, Q2 2011
About this chart: Source: Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) July 2011. PIB is a membership organization, administered by MPA – The Association of Magazine Media, consisting of approximately 235 different magazine titles and newspaper-distributed magazines. Kantar Media, the leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing information, collects and monitors this data and supplies it to PIB.