Media buyers and planners hoping to take advantage of Campaign 2012, take note: cable news leads the pack among sources, with local TV in second place, but on the decline. A surprising second-to-last, the Internet. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press’ 2012 campaign news survey discovered the trends in a January survey of 1,507 adults nationwide.
Pew reports that fewer Americans are closely following the campaign than four years ago, which has caused long-term and sharpening declines in the number of people tuning into local TV and network news.
Cable tops the sources in 2012, at 36%, but is only treading water. That despite the fact that cable nets have hosted most of the Republican debates, which are among a campaign year’s strongest draws. Almost half of Republicans (47%) watched a Republican debate during this campaign, up from 32% during the 2008 campaign.Still, cable news “reaches a substantial number across age and partisan lines,” reports Pew. Republicans tune into Fox News, Democrats into CNN and MSNBC.
Only 20% of Americans “regularly learn something” about the campaign or its candidates from local daily papers, a plummet from 31% in 2008. Local TV is down as well.
It is easy to blame it all on the Internet, but not so fast: the Internet as a source has gained only 1% since the 2008 campaign. The Internet had jumped from 13 to 24%, from campaign 2004 (Bush/Kerry) to campaign 2008 (McCain/Obama). Pew speculates that the Internet is the key source for a younger demographic, who are less likely to be Republican. Just 20% of those younger than 30 followed the campaign closely, down from 31% in 2008.
comScore Data: Newspaper Websites Gaining, Holding Interest
Newspaper websites in Q4 2011 averaged more than 111 million monthly unique visitors (MUVs), up by more than 6 million compared to the same period in 2010, reports the Newspaper Association of America (NAA), citing comScore data. Fully 63% of adult Internet users visited newspaper websites.
A comarison of newspaper website usage data year-over-year (YOY) revealed that average daily visitors increased by more than 3 million, or nearly 15%. Unique visitors increased nearly 6%, while total minutes increased 14%.
The comScore data demonstrate “The growing appeal of newspapers’ online content,” said NAA President and CEO Carolline Little, “particularly for engaged, informed and affluent users whom advertisers…seek to reach.” As Little described, 70% of Internet users with household income (HHI) above $60,000 are reached by newspaper websites, and 75% when looking at HHI above $100,000.
Other key findings about Q4 2011: Among people 45 to 54, newspaper website percentage reach climed to 67%. In the 18 to 34 demographic, website reach remained at or above 60%.
Newspapers are answering these numbers with a steady stream of what NAA calls “innovative strategies designed to maintain and build their digital audiences.” For example, the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. launched animated editorials, and the New York Times launched a fashion-focused niche app.
“During all of 2011, the percentage reach of Internet users enjoyed by newspaper websites never dipped below 61 percent,” Little said. “Web-based and other digital platforms at newspaper are capturing—and holding—attention in the marketplace.”
Signs of hope
Editor & Publisher described 2011 as “the lowest point yet” for newspaper ad revenue," with 2011 revenues of $24 billion, down from the record high $49.4 billion in 2005. E&P observed that, however important a digital strategy appears to be, it has yet to fulfill its potential in newspaper revenue. “Sure, digital advertising climbed 8.3%, but digital still contributes only 14.3% to overall publisher revenue. But the newspaper industry is clearly aware of the trend, and 2012 will likely see the digital contribution approaching 17%. E&P opined that newspaper must compete on content, and the papers are treating apps, animation and streaming video as exactly that—content—if not the content they are used to providing.
WSJ Live Launches YouTube Channel
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) today launched its dedicated YouTube channel, reports Investors Business Daily. First among its advertisers visible to YouTube viewers: the Ron Paul campaign (with a banner ad and 13-minute streaming infomercial), the United Arab Emirates and Boeing.
Key among the on-demand content is its “Off Duty” lifestyle show, based on the section of the same name in WSJ’s Saturday editions. WSH reporter Wendy Bounds will host “Off Duty,” airing every business day at 6pm EST, then available on demand. WSJ is treating YouTube as another distribution channel for its WSJ Live, which offers four hours of live programming per day. WSJ Live is available already on the iPad and Smart TVs. The WSJ Live app is also broadly available, via Apple TV, Google TV and Roku. WSJ claims its Live app for iPad has been downloaded more than 160,000 times since launch in September 2011. A quick check of the Apple iTunes store reveals a five-star rating for the app.
While the “Off Duty” segment is new, it joins several existing segments including Digits, Mean Street, Markets Hub and Opinion.
TV Leads as Political News Source, Newspapers Lag
When asked where Americans get their political news, fully 44% of Americans responded “Television,” reports Poll Position. Only one segment—adults 30-44—responded “From the Internet.” In that 30-44 segment, 35% chose the Internet, 32% said television was their source for most political news, 18% said somewhere else (e.g., radio, magazines), and 14% picked newspapers.
The overall results are grim for newspapers, at only 16% among all surveyed. 2011 was a tough year for newspapers, with ad revenues a mere $24 billion in comparison to the record high of $49.4 billion in 2005.
Poll Position surveyed 1,113 registered voters nationwide, and claims a margin of error of ±3%.
Online Ad Spend to Climb 23.3%, Surpassing Print but Trailing TV
U.S. online ad spending will grow 23.3% in 2012 to nearly $40 billion, and nearly $53 billion in 2013, predicts eMarketer. Principal Analyst David Hallerman writes that advertisers’ comfort level with integrated marketing is driving more big brands to invest in online advertising.
This makes 2012 the first year in which online ad spends will surpass the total spent on print ads, with $39.5 billion online versus $33.8 billion in magazines and newspapers.
But, TV will remain the strongest outlet for ad spend, with $64.8 billion in 2012, more than twice. Online will close the gap over the next four years, reaching $62 billion in 2016, just $10 billion shy of TV at $72 billion.
Overall, ad spend across all media will grow by 6.7% in 2012 to $169.5 billion, fueled in part by election campaigns and the burgeoning mobile ad market. Growth will slow to 3-4% by 2016, to about $200 billion total. TV will continue to grow, while print will actively decline.
Editor & Publisher Launching “2020 Vision” of Newspaper Business
Beginning in February, Editor & Publisher magazine will begin “deconstruct[ing] the current newspaper business model and rebuild[ing] it from the ground up,” in a series it calls 2020 Vision.
E&P columnist and industry analyst Alan Mutter predicted that 2011 would mark “the lowest point yet” for newspaper ad revenue. Mutter was analyzing data from the Newspaper Association of America, and predicted that 2011 revenues would be $24 billion, down from the record high $49.4 billion in 2005. Q4 2011 results are still drifting in, but for Q1 through Q3, classified ads fell 12.9%,retail by 8.8%, and national advertising dropped 11%.
In an analysis of data compiled by the Newspaper Association of America, E&P columnist and industry consultant Alan Mutter predicted that 2011 would mark the lowest point yet for newspaper ad revenue — a mere $24 billion in comparison to the record high of $49.4 billion in 2005. Though Mutter has drawn negative comments from our readers for his critique of the industry, the numbers from the NAA can’t be ignored. In the first nine months of 2011, classified advertising fell 12.9 percent, retail dropped 8.8 percent, and national advertising fell 11 percent.
E&P observes that, however important a digital strategy appears to be, it has yet to fulfill its potential in newspaper revenue. “Sure, digital advertising climbed 8.3%, but digital still contributes only 14.3% to overall publisher revenue.
E&P pledges to point a critical eye at every aspectof newspaper publishing, starting with content “always the bread and butter” in February; then moving on to distribution, technology, budget allocation and management.
BPA Amends Rules for Print and Digital Tallies
Ad buyers and planners can expect more precise circulation figures, beginning in 2012. Folio reports that media auditor BPA Worldwide has approved several new and amended rules, some aimed at better segmenting print and digital readerships. All were member-requested changes.
Old rules assigned three categories of readership, “print,” “digital” and “both,” for a total of 100%; someone who read “both” was not counted as a print or digital reader. New measures will roll “both” readers into the “print” and “digital” categories, for higher figures.
The BPA board approved “downloaded apps” by month as a measure in a BPA Brand Report, versus a standard BPA report; but the measure must include verbiage “disclosing the limitations of the figures,” says Folio. App copies cannot be reported as qualified circulation, as are downloaded issues, or email deliveries.
Also true, subscriber access to digital copies will be used as a measure of renewals in some cases, such as when 1) a weekly is accessed nine times in six months; 2) a monthly is been accessed twice in six months; and 3) a quarterly publication is accessed every six months.
Consumer Magazine Ad Revenue Flat for 2011, Plummeted Q4
The Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) has released its consumer magazine print ad tallies for 2011. Sales were relatively flat, with an $8 million increase over 2011—a drop in the bucket, as total revenue was $20.09 billion. Pages dropped 3.1% to 164,255 in 2011, but plummeted 8% in Q2.
Association of Magazine Media CEO Nina Link observed that Q1 and Q2 were positive, but with “A weakened economy in the second half of the year…advertisers grew more skittish from diminished consumer spending, wild stock market swings and zero job growth.” Still, there were what Link calls “pockets of strength,” sectors that increased their spending for the full year. These included apparel, cosmetics and the financial (e.g., insurance) sectors. Financial, Insurance & Real Estate posted the strongest gains, with ad revenues up 19.4%, and pages up 12.7%. Banks, investment firms, credit card providers and the like made up for poor real estate advertising. Toiletries and Cosmetics gained 9.5% in revenue, and Apparel & Accessories, 9.7%. This could be an example of the “lipstick effect,” whereby consumers who cannot afford luxury goods like automobiles console themselves with a less costly luxury. The food sector was down, which Link blames on rising energy and production costs in the industry; also in home furnishing and supplies, due to a soft housing market.
Research: Social Media No Substitute for Offline Ads
Offline channels still hold the reins in brand and product awareness, reports eMarketer, despite the talk of “viral marketing” and social media “influencers. eMarketer was quoting market research by AYTM, which found that 57.8% of US Facebook users had not any brand in a status updates as of October 2011. Similarly, 61.3% of Twitter users had never “tweeted” about a brand. Of those consumers who claimed to hear frequently about new brands, only 6.5% did so frequently, and 26% reported they never heard of new brands through social media.
Where they did hear about new brands, products and services: TV, radio, and offline print outlets. Sixteen percent did so “most frequently,” 34.9% did so often, 31.8% sometimes, 13% rarely, 4.2% never.
Boston Globe To Print, Deliver Rival Boston Herald
The Boston Globe reports that it has cut a deal with rival Boston Herald to print and deliver the Herald, starting January 23. This will enable the Herald to lay off 53 truck drivers and delivery personnel. The Globe has been a New York Times property since 1993, while the Boston Herald is an independent, formerly owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation.
November figures from The Audit Bureau of Calculations puts the Herald daily circulation at 113,798, and the Globe at 205,939. The dailies have pledged to keep their distinct editorial tones, despite a long and fractious rivalry. The Herald went to a tabloid format in 1981, and under Murdoch, took on the editorial tenor of another Murdoch property, News of the World. Celebrities took on nicknames like “Jacko” for Michael Jackson, and “Fat Boy” for Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennnedy. The Globe meanwhile kept its editorial direction fairly consistent.
Globe publisher Christopher Mayer observed that ‘‘Given the overlap in our distribution, this just makes sense to do at this time,’’ while Herald publisher Patrick Purcell observed the arrangement simply made sound financial sense. This is a rare but proven mechanism: The Chicago Sun-Times and Chicago Tribune, as well as the Miami Herald and rival Sun-Sentinel have entered into similar arrangements.