Media buyers and planners hoping to take advantage of Campaign 2012, take note: cable news leads the pack among sources, with local TV in second place, but on the decline. A surprising second-to-last, the Internet. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press’ 2012 campaign news survey discovered the trends in a January survey of 1,507 adults nationwide.
Pew reports that fewer Americans are closely following the campaign than four years ago, which has caused long-term and sharpening declines in the number of people tuning into local TV and network news.
Cable tops the sources in 2012, at 36%, but is only treading water. That despite the fact that cable nets have hosted most of the Republican debates, which are among a campaign year’s strongest draws. Almost half of Republicans (47%) watched a Republican debate during this campaign, up from 32% during the 2008 campaign.Still, cable news “reaches a substantial number across age and partisan lines,” reports Pew. Republicans tune into Fox News, Democrats into CNN and MSNBC.
Only 20% of Americans “regularly learn something” about the campaign or its candidates from local daily papers, a plummet from 31% in 2008. Local TV is down as well.
It is easy to blame it all on the Internet, but not so fast: the Internet as a source has gained only 1% since the 2008 campaign. The Internet had jumped from 13 to 24%, from campaign 2004 (Bush/Kerry) to campaign 2008 (McCain/Obama). Pew speculates that the Internet is the key source for a younger demographic, who are less likely to be Republican. Just 20% of those younger than 30 followed the campaign closely, down from 31% in 2008.
Upfront TV: “Face Off” Again | BET’s Ambitious Plans | Oscar Spots Sold Out | News Nets Give Fs
- Syfy has renewed Face Off for a 10-episode third season, reports Multichannel News. The competition/elimination show pits special makeup artists against one another, with top Hollywood talent (e.g., Tom Savini of numerous Living Dead movies) as judges. Face Off airs Wednesdays at 10 p.m., and scored 2.5 million viewers for its January 11 Season 2 premiere.
- Black Entertainment Television (BET) has revealed what the LA Times calls an “ambitious development slate.” Among the offerings, a new sitcom from the Wayans family; “Gun Hill,” the channel’s first scripted drama; and projects involving minister T.D. Jakes, comedian-author Steve Harvey,actor Jamie Foxx and TV judge Greg Mathis.are behind various reality projects, including one series that will revamp "Showtime at the Apollo". BET also operates the BET Vertical AdNetwork, targeting the $821 billion buying power of African-Americans.
- Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Bob Iger announced that ABC has sold out commercial time for this year’s 84th Annual Academy Awards broadcast on February 26. As the LA Times reports, Iger told analysts in an earnings conference call that this is unusually early to have offloaded all inventory, even with a few more spots for the 2012 broadcast than in 2011. ABC took an average $1.7 million per 30-second spot.
- News directors don’t think much of one another’s product revealed a survey by TVNewsCheck. news directors at stations across the U.S. were asked to grade networks on their overall journalistic quality. None received As, though NBC news scored highest, and Fox News Channel (FNC), lowest. Fox News scored highest in conservative bias, and MSNBC on liberal bias. The GPAs listed refer to the “grade point average” scale of 1-4. These figures are way out of whack with public sentiment: FNC just celebrated a decade run as the most watched cable news network, with MSNBC in the #2 slot.
Upfront TV: “NCIS” at 200 | Super Bowl Tops Itself | “Voice” Soars | Hispanic News, English Language
- Kudos to CBS and “NCIS,” which tonight will air its 200th episode. The Navy/legal drama debuted in 2003, with actor Mark Harmon at the helm, who was best known for his work on NBC’s “St. Elsewhere,” and as a hunk-for-hire on such shows as “The West Wing.” “NCIS” has defied the approaching-a-decade malaise, delivering an average 22.7 million viewers for new episodes this season. 100 episodes is industry standard to reach syndication level. The record number of episodes in history television belongs to “Gunsmoke,” which ran for 20 seasons and 635 episodes.
- Super Bowl XLVI attracted a record 111.3 million total viewers, reports Media Life, to become the most-watched broadcast in television history. This is the third year running that the Super Bowl has set the record, held until 2010 by the series finale of "M*A*S*H" in 1983. It was also the highest-rated Super Bowl in 26 years, with an average 47.0 household rating and 71 share. The game took a 40.5 share among adults 18-49.
- The post-Super Bowl Season 2 premiere of “The Voice” on NBC took a 16.3 rating adult 18-49 rating, and 37.61 million viewers, reports TVByTheNumbers. This was NBC’s best rating for an entertainment telecast since the “Friends” finale in 2004, with a 24.9 share.
- The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has ruled that NBC’s WMAQ-TV Chicago had a right to deny long-shot GOP presidential candidate Randall Terry a Super Bowl ad spot, reports Broadcasting & Cable. FCC ruled that while broadcasters must make ad time available to qualified candidates, WMAQ judged fairly that Terry was unqualified, given his showing at the polls. The ad reportedly contained graphic images of aborted fetuses, which Terry believed was behind the denial.
- Univision and Disney are in talks for a Latino-oriented 24-hour cable news channel, in English. As TVNewsCheck reports, neither company will confirm or discuss the project, but are likely to launch the channel in time for the November presidential election. The 2010 census revealed that U.S. born Latinos comprise nearly 60% of the growth among U.S. Hispanics over the last decade, and that an increasing number speak English as a first language.
Analysts: 2012 Ad Spends to be “Decent” In TV, Digital, Down in Magazines
Ad Age is predicting a pretty good, if not stellar 2012 in which digital and TV spends will be up, but magazines down.
Vincent Letang, who is executive VP and head of global forecasting at Magna Global, attributed what growth there will be—about 10.9% across all media—largely to 2012 being both an Olympics and an election year. Without them, “Some would have predicted probably a worse outlook” for 2012. But with those two powerful drivers, TV ad revenue should increase by 6.8% this year. Time will tell, with upfront spending just getting going. Thusfar only General Motors (GM) has canceled upon a significant percent of its commitments, at just shy of 50%.
TV ad revenue should increase 6.8% this year, once again, attributable once election season and the Olympics have their effect, according to Magna Global's forecast on Jan. 23. The past several weeks have been strong, but the second-quarter scatter market will ultimately provide the best indication for upfront spending, said Mel Berning, exec VP-ad sales at A&E Networks.
Ad pages fell about 8.4% in January and February issues, year-over-year (YOY), and magazines overall can expect a 5.2% decline in 2012 ad revenue, Magna Global predicts. But there are signs of health in the digital quarter, with at least one media provider (Complex Media) projecting firth-quarter revenues doubling over Q4 2012. So while print journals will see a decline, their digital properties—and they all have them—are likely to help them tread water.
Grammy Awards Partner with CBS for Three Days of Streaming Programming
Beginning Friday, the Grammy Awards will launch “Grammy Live,” three days of live-streaming and social media, reports GigaOM. The lineup includes anchored behind-the-scenes coverage from correspondents like Alison Haislip (former correspondent for The Voice) and one-time MTV Newser John Norris.
Last year, the Grammy Awards partnered with YouTube, using its then-in-beta live-streaming service for digital delivery. All told, the partnership was a success, but “Partnering with our network partner affords us enhanced opportunities,” “Grammy Live” executive producer Peter Anton told GigaOm; among them, more on-air mentions in prime time for the “Grammy Live” programming.
“Grammy Live” is promising an “exclusive VIP pass to all the excitement and glamour of GRAMMY Weekend, with an “insider’s view into the hottest…events,” such as the MusicCares Person of the Year event honoring Paul McCartney. But as GigaOM describes, there’s only so live the broadcast can get: each live performance during the ceremony must be OK’d by the artist and rights holders, meaning those performances are on a delay without any guarantee. Likely, viewers will tune into the awards on CBS but enjoy the remaining nearly 72 hours of programming online.
Upfront TV: “Sons of Anarchy” Renewed | NBC Dooms “The Firm” | 20/20 Dominates 18-49
- Before Season 5 even airs, FX has renewed its biker drama “Sons of Anarchy” for a sixth season, reports TVByTheNumbers, and creator Kurt Sutter has been signed to a new three-year deal. “Sons of Anarchy” is expected to return in October of this year. The Season 4 premiere, which aired September 6 of 2011, was the most-watched program in FX history, with 6.5 million viewers.
- NBC has “effectively cancelled” the lawyer-in-trouble drama “The Firm,” reports Broadcasting & Cable. NBC has moved the series to the Saturdays 9 p.m. slot to “burn off” its remaining original episodes. “The Firm” was on Thursdays at 10 p.m. (a slot held for more than a decade by “E.R.”). NBC will premiere its new drama “Awake” beginning March 1, with repeats of “Grimm” running in the slot until then. “The Firm” drew a meager 0.8 rating with adults 18-49 in last Thursday’s airing.
- ABC finished #1 on Friday among adults 18-49; the network crowed in a press release that “it was the Net’s 4th straight Friday to deliver the #1 position against its network rivals.” ABC’s 20/20 took the night’s #1 position among that key young-adult demographic. Perhaps it was the subject matter: 20/20 featured an in-depth look at marriage and divorce, Hollywood style.
- More signs of struggle at the Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN); “The Rosie Show” shed more staffers last week, to a total of 30 employees and contractors, and has moved taping to a smaller studio. As Crain’s Chicago Business describes, host O’Donnell is trying to “find the right formula to boost ratings,” which now average only 200,000 viewers, as opposed to its premier at 500,000. The show has done away with some fun-based elements like a game show segment, in favor of one-on-one interviews.
Upfront TV: Viacom Blames Nielsen & Nickelodeon | GM Cancels Half its Ads | “Beverly Hills Nannies”
- Viacom’s fourth-quarter cable unit ad revenue dropped 3%, reports Multichannel News, and Viacom is blaming Nielsen. Its kid-oriented Nickelodeon Channel has been on a double-digit decline since September. Viacom claims Nielsen’s measurements are inaccurate, and presented its own set-top-box data that shows steady ratings. Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman claims that without the drop-off at Nickelodeon—toymakers weren’t about to advertise for Christmas on a sinking network—Viacom’s ad revenues would have been up for Q4.
- General Motors (GM) has cancelled almost half of its Q2 upfront buys in broadcast and cable, reports Adweek, the maximum allowable under standard network contracts. GM did the same in 2009, when cancelations ran around 15%. Procter & Gamble similarly pulled out of half its commitments that year. This may not be a sign of ill health for the #1 U.S., than a sign of streamlining. GM recently consolidated its global media buying and planning account with Carat, cutting loose several regional agencies.
- NBC will use ultra-slow-motion cameras in Sunday’s Super Bowl broadcast, reports Broadcasting & Cable. The Hi-Motion II cameras from NAC Image Technology allows for ultra-high-quality images (usually sacrificed in slo-mo), but at a 10X reduction in speed. 2X is more typical.
- ABC Family has ordered a new reality series, “Bevery Hills Nannies,” reports Entertainment Weekly. This docu-series will follow nannies who work in the 90210 area code. “Nannies” is produced by Evolution Media who are behind the “Real Housewives” Beverly Hills and Orange County franchises. ABC Family is home of “The Secret Life of the American Teenager,” and racier shows like “Pretty Little Liars.” Time will tell if “Nannies” will approach the violence and hijinx typical of the “Housewives” properties.
- While the wound does not appear fatal, “American Idol” continues to bleed. “Idol” on Wednesday drew a 5.9 rating among adults 18-49, reports TVByTheNumbers. That is down 9% from a 6.5 rating the prior Wednesday, and 34% from its third Wednesday telecast in 2011.
Are Networks Bamboozling Nielsen?
“Smart commercial buyers know when the ratings are being spun,” observed the New York Times , “and they insist on paying for the real ratings.” But if Nielsen can be fooled, likely, so can media buyers when they see decent ratings for a property like "I Hate My Teenage Daughter."
The Times went on to describe some real-world stories and tactics that networks are using to pad their Nielsen ratings:
- ABC’s labeling four of its five “Good Morning America” broadcasts “special programming” between Christmas and New Years 2011, such that only the highest-rated Monday broadcast counted
- NBC’s presenting the January 23 Republican primary debate as an edition of the low-rated “Rock Center with Brian Williams,” which doubled the show’s usual audience, to 7.1 million
- Strategically placing national commercials; a show receives national ratings from Nielsen only until the last national commercial is broadcast. So ABC front-loads its half-hour “Nightline” with national commercials, catching viewers before they go to bed, and relegates local advertising to the last half.
- Running into the next hour with popular shows; Fox in December ran two minutes long with its high-rated “The X Factor,” which inflated the ratings for the low-rated “I Hate My Teenage Daughter.”
None of these tactics save a show, but they do give a network “bragging rights.” A Nielsen employee (on grounds of anonymity) told the Times that the company has standards about these practices, but that they are rarely enforced beyond the occasional stern letter. The networks are remorseless: one program executive said (also on grounds of anonymity) “You do everything you can, as long as you can,” said the network program executive. “And then [Nielsen] slap[s] your hand.”
8% Rise in Network Primetime CPMs, Analyst Predicts
Pivotal Research Group, a New York-based equity research firm, is projecting 8% in cost-per-thousand impressions (CPM) in network primetime. Analyst Brian Wieser expects this to be a boon for those broadcasters. RBR.com quoted Wieser as saying he expects “These seemingly favorable price increases to positively impact sentiment around ad-supported media stocks including CBS, Comcast, Walt Disney and News Corp.” Cable networks (including Time Warner, Discovery and AMC) will likely enjoy a “halo” effect.
In last year’s upfront market, broadcasters ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC saw CPM prices increase by 9% reported paidContent, while cable networks jumped 12%. So this is good, and perhaps unexpected news for the networks. If Internet video has reached a tipping point (with announcements like original content from Netflix and Hulu), it “doesn’t appear to be coming at the expense of traditional TV,” suggests paidContent.
While that 8% is a very educated guess, it is an imprecise one; advertisers may surprise the networks at the negotiating table—chiefly by not showing up, or by putting their ad dollars online. In a worst-case scenario Wieser believes that the rise could be as low as 5%.
Upfront TV: Fox Leads Again | Sports TV Ads Strong | Amanpour’s Double Duty | Lingerie Bowl IX
- Fox News continues its lead in news viewership, handily pulling in the most viewers for its coverage of Tuesday’s Florida Republican primary. As Broadcasting & Cable reports, the channel averaged 2.5 million total viewers from 8-11pm EST. CNN took second place with 1.09 million total viewers, and MSNBC third with 984,000. FNC also led among the adults 25-54 demographic, with 641,000 viewers to CNN’s 402,000 and MSNBC’s 245,000.
- Ratings took a sudden drop at ABC/Disney’s “Live! With Kelly.” For the week ending January 22, rating dropped 10% from the same week a year earlier, to a 2.7 household rating from a 3.0. “Was it the weak line-up of cohosts for the week?” asked Hollywood Reporter. Guest hosts included Seth Meyers, Mario Lopez and long-ago “Saturday Night Live” comic Dana Carvey. Disney countered that it was that long-time host Regis Philbin had announced he was leaving the show, that same week in 2010, so the weeks were not comparable.
- Sports TV advertising rose 5.9% in 2011, reports Media Life, to about $11 billion—about four times the pace of the overall media economy. One possible reason: consumers seeking lower-cost entertainment will stay home and watch the cable TV they pay for, rather than spend $10 a ticket to go to the movies.
- Veteran journalist Christiane Amanpour will return to CNN Worldwide with her signature show “Amanpour,” spearheading a new CNN International lineup, the network announced. This in addition to her duties as global affairs anchor for ABC News. How she will manage a daily show on CNN, while globetrotting for ABC, neither network has confirmed.
- The Lingerie Football League (LFL) will broadcast its Lingerie Bowl IX at 4pm EST. With the Super Bowl kickoff at about 6:30, sports fans can enjoy both, broadcaster MTV2 enthuses. The Philadelphia Passion and Los Angeles Temptation will play at Las Vegas’ Orleans Arena. With five expansion markets in 2011, and LFL Canada, Australia and Europe in the works, LFL claims to be the U.S.’s fastest-growing pro sports league with sell-out crowds and, of course, record internet traffic. No word yet on advertisers, but past supporters of LFL have included Hard Rock Café, Rawlings and Sony.
