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TV Ad Market Stabilizing, Say Industry Execs

The TV ad market is not getting any worse. That’s what media executives on earnings calls have been saying, according to Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce - which means the downturn could be leveling out.

For example, News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch said last week, on reporting the company’s fiscal third-quarter profit, that the “worst is over,” while Walt Disney Co. CFO Tom Staggs told analysts (via Fox Business) that the rate of decline in the advertising   market is “stabilizing.” Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman said the company is seeing “good stable pricing in the market,” and, though volume has been soft, it’s starting to come back in. “We are seeing more robustness as we head into the upfront season,” he is quoted as saying (via TV Week).

Still, the media industry is looking at a long recovery, not a quick “spring-back,” as some had hoped, says Dean DeBiase, CEO of TNS Media, writes Media Life.

Analysts are saying the increasing activity in local TV and radio - due in part to a reduction in prices - indicates a recovery is in the works. Inventory at some local TV and radio stations is beginning to become tight, as first time advertisers who couldn’t afford TV or radio in the past are beginning to make ad buys.

Adding to media executives’ feelings of optimism is the fact that consumer confidence rose in April, and stock values are beginning to level out.

But some media - mainly newspapers and magazines - are not likely to return to the levels of years past. Zenith Optimedia is predicting that newspaper spending will fall 12% this year, while magazine spending will slip 11%. TV spending is expected to drop 5.5%. Overall spending in North America will fall 8.3%. The internet will remain a bright spot this year, with predicted online ad expenditures rising 8.6%.

TNS Media Intelligence figures released last week showed that U.S. ad spending fell 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008. That’s more than twice the 4.1% drop for 2008 as a whole; TNS is expecting the spending decline to continue throughout 2009, writes eMarketer.