TV Revs to Decline 21% in Two Years; ‘Transformation’ TV’s Only Hope: BIA

Revenue in the television industry will take a dramatic fall below the $20 billion mark starting this year, according to BIA Advisory Services.

After six years with industry revenue hovering between $20 billion and $22 billion, 2009 is expected to end at an even $17 billion in revenues, a 21.2% drop in two years from 2007’s $21.5 billion, BIA says.

BIA is forecasting a slight revenue increase of .6% in 2010, due to an election year and a recovering economy, but 2011 will likely see a small dip into the negatives again. It won’t be until 2012 that the TV industry will see a solid return to positive revenue streams. In 2012, BIA expects an additional $1.1 billion in ad revenues will come to local television stations from providing mobile video programming to cellular, mobile, and portable handsets.

The BIA says TV revenue declined just 6.6% in 2008, but that number would have been lower had fierce Presidential and Congressional campaigns not been held in battleground states.

“Transformation” is the only path to expansion for the industry, BIA says. This will come from cross-platform growth, along with “real energies put into finding local advertising revenues available through mobile and online advertising.”

Zenith Optimedia is predicting that TV ad expenditures will fall 5.5% in 2009, while TV’s share of the market will grow from 38.1% in 2008 to 38.6 this year.