24/7 Wall Street Predicts the 10 Newspapers to Fold Next

The plight of the newspaper industry has finally reached public consciousness as bad news hit new highs in recent weeks. The Rocky Mountain News shut its doors, and the Journal Register Co. and Philadelphia Newspapers LLC declared bankruptcy. Fitch Ratings predicted in December that several cities could be left without a major newspaper at some point this year.

Now,  24/7 Wall Street has predicted which 10 newspapers will be the next to fold (or go all-digital):

• The Philadelphia Daily News, the smaller of the two Philly papers, says it will make money this year, but the city cannot support two papers, according to the article. The Daily News only has a circulation of about 100,000.
• The Minneapolis Star-Tribune has filed for bankruptcy - and may not make any money this year even without the costs of its debt coverage. In 2008, the paper made half of what it made in 2007. It might survive… if rival St. Paul Pioneer Press folds.
• The Miami Herald is owned by McClatchy - which has had to write off $5.3 million owed to it by companies that purchased McClatchy newspapers and then filed for bankruptcy protection. McClatchy itself could be the next newspaper chain to file. The Herald has been on the market since December, but no buyers have surfaced.
• The Detroit News has been hit hard by the downturn in auto advertising. It has already cut back on the number of days the newspaper is delivered to subscribers, but that may not be enough to keep the paper alive.
• The Boston Globe is losing $1 million a week and, according to one investment bank, is only worth $20 million.

Other newspapers expected to tank are the San Francisco Chronicle - which Hearst is already considering shutting down if it cannot make serious cost cuts - the Chicago Sun-Times, the New York Daily News, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, and the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Fitch expects that newspaper industry revenue growth will be negative for the “foreseeable future,” as both ad pricing and linage will be under pressure within each of the four main components of newspaper companies’ revenue streams: circulation and local, classified and national advertising. As newsprint costs rise, it could be difficult for newspapers to offset revenue declines with cost cuts, the Fitch report stated.

Of the newspapers that were tops in circulation in 1990 - the year newspaper employment peaked and the last year before circulation declines really began to trend downward - 20 have declined, and one was shut down completely.