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Wachovia: Radio to Plunge 13% in 2009

As anyone in the industry knows, the outlook isn’t brilliant for radio in 2009 - and Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker has reconfirmed that belief with her latest note to investors.

Ryvicker is predicting a 13% decline in revenues in 2009; that follows what she estimates will be a 9% decline in revenues in 2008, according to MediaPost.

Local will be down 13%, national down 17%, network down 10% and non-traditional revenues down 4%.

For TV, Ryvicker expects total revenues to be down 12%, including local (off 15%), national (-25%), syndicated (-3%) and network (-5%). TV station internet revenues will be up 3%.

In addition to the negative revenue trends, Ryvicker warns about the problem of the burden of debt carried by many big radio broadcasters. Paying off that debt in 2009 will be a matter of cost-cutting in as many places as possible, including sales of assets and layoffs.

One potential silver lining is online radio, which John Ruffolo, senior technology leader at Deloitte, believes will have a defining year this year. As WiFi radios - which let consumers access internet radio stations and podcasts - become more affordable, the popularity of internet radio will increase, which will lead to a heightened appeal to advertisers.

Radio needs the boost: national radio revenue was down 12% in the third quarter of 2008. Local slipped 10%, while local and national combined were down 11% compared with the same quarter in 2007.

Off-air - which includes internet revenue - was up 5% from the same quarter in 2007.