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Analysts Predict Network Ad Revenue Could Climb by 5 to 7%

The year 2008 was predicted by analysts to be a solid year financially for the television networks in terms of ad dollars, but the writers strike, now two months old and with no clear end in sight, has rendered the outlook unclear.

Still, analyst Lee Westerfield of BMO Capital Markets Corp. projects that broadcast network ad revenue for all dayparts could rise by 6.2 percent in 2008, to $17 billion, with more than $2 billion coming from prime-time scatter, writes Mediaweek. Bob Coen, senior vp, director of forecasting for Universal McCann, projects broadcast revenue to grow 5 percent to $17.8 billion in 2008, and Dave Poltrack of CBS projects a 7 percent surge.

Tight inventory, a severe problem in the fourth quarter, will continue in 2008. With no new, first-run scripted programs on the horizon, broadcast prime time viewership will continue to erode, creating an even greater makegoods situation and further tightening inventory.

Network watchers say that if networks carry their makegoods into the next season, it could create “unprecedented chaos” and put advertisers in the position of looking for alternative methods of reaching viewers - though analysts say there is no replacement for network TV for brand marketers.