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Zenith, McCann, GroupM Offer Optimistic ‘07 Ad Outlook

Universal McCann, ZenithOptimedia and GroupM all came out with their outlooks for 2007 ad spending, and all indicate generally optimistic growth.

The average of the forecasts issued by the three during UBS’s weeklong media conference in New York was about a 4.3 percent growth rate in the U.S., and a 5.3 percent rate for worldwide ad spending in 2007, writes MediaPost.

Universal McCann projects a 4.8 percent rise in U.S. spending while ZenithOptimedia predicts a 4.1 percent growth and GroupM expects only 2.0 percent growth. Global predictions from the three were within a tenth of a point of each other.

Merrill Lynch analyst Lauren Rich Fine calls these estimates optimistic. Merrill Lynch expects 2.9 percent growth in 2007 in the U.S, and a 3.6 percent growth globally.

Despite stronger than expected local and regional political ad spending in 2006, it was a relatively soft year for ad spending, mainly because big marketers were reluctant to free up dollars, even in the face of strong and lasting corporate profits.

Nationally, advertisers in the top advertising categories - which represent about half of all U.S. ad spending - were especially loathe to boost spending, according to Bob Coen, Universal McCann director of forecasting. That group increased spending by only 2 percent during the first nine months of the year.

Secondary product categories such as telecommunications, computers and insurance have been soaring at a rate of 15 percent during the same period.

Universal McCann expects growth of 3 percent for the four TV networks, 6.5 percent growth for cable TV, and no change in spot TV.

Radio should see a 4 percent growth, magazines 5 percent, and newspapers only 1 percent.

Direct mail should see a growth of 7.5 percent, while the internet should fly 15 percent. Total local spend should grow by 2.7 percent.