Downloads:

Global Ad Spending Now Expected to Tumble 5.5% in 2009: GroupM

GroupM is now predicting that global ad spending will slip 5.5% this year, down from the 4.4% drop that the group predicted in March.

Spending on measured media will fall to $417 billion this year. GroupM expects ad spending will fall just 1.4% in 2010, to $411 billion.

In North America, measured media ad spend will fall 6.1% in 2009, to $151 billion, according to GroupM. North American ad spending was down 2% in 2008.

Interactive media will make up 17% of the U.S. ad marketplace in 2010, up from 15.4% in 2009, making it the third largest medium in the U.S. The U.K. will have the most interactive media penetration, where it will make up 30.9% of the market. Denmark follows, with interactive media making up 28.4% of the advertising market.

In the U.S., television will continue to have the largest share of the market, at 44.2%, followed by magazines, at 18.4%. Newspapers will fall to fourth place behind the internet, with a 13.6% share in 2009 and a 12.4% share in 2010, MediaPost reports.

Radio’s share of the total ad market in the U.S. will slide, as well, down from 6% to 5.6% this year and to 5.2% in 2010. Out-of-home will continue steady at 2.7%.

Local media will likely hit bottom this year and begin to rebound, said Rino Scanzoni, chief investment officer at GroupM (via Adweek). But national media, particularly television, will continue to see slippage.

Packaged goods marketers remained the most steady in terms of spending, while auto and financial retreated the furthest.

Globally, the forecast will brighten in 2010, with the 15 countries still reporting positive ad growth in 2009 jumping to 33 in 2010, Scanzoni says. Brazil, Russia, India, and China will lead the recovery.

In April, ZenithOptimedia predicted that global ad spending would fall 6.7% in 2009, with North American spending down 8.3%.