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NewMediaMetrics Predicts Success of Leno, NCIS, Trauma

While many media watchers expect that Jay Leno’s show on NBC could pull low ratings, predictive analysis from research company NewMediaMetrics shows the program could be a strong contender in the prime time fight, particularly on Tuesday and Thursday nights.

A comprehensive review of the fall prime time lineup suggests that NCIS: Los Angeles, on CBS, will score high ratings on Tuesdays at 9, as will The Jay Leno Show at 10, reports Adweek. Other strong shows for the season will include: Flash Forward on ABC’s Thursday nights; hospital drama Trauma at 9 on Mondays on NBC; Family Guy spin-off The Cleveland Show (Fox, Sundays at 8:30); and the Vampire Diaries (CW, Wednesdays at 8).

ABC’s The Forgotten, Cougar Town and Eastwick, as well as Fox’s Glee, are also expected to perform well.

NewMediaMetrics began calling the outcome of fall shows in 2005 and claims it had an 86% success rate in its fall 2008 predictions. The research company’s predictions are based on emotional attachments viewers can be expected to have with new shows like Leno and returning shows, across 40 demographic cuts. The company also predicts viewers’ preferences for brands. For example, NewMediaMetrics predicts that women in the 35-49 demo who drink Grey Goose vodka will be more likely to watch The Vampire Diaries, Glee and Leno, while the same group that likes shopping at Old Navy will enjoy Lifetime’s Deadbeat Dads.

NewMediaMetrics tracks 220 brands and brand affinity across the five broadcast nets and 35 cable outlets, including Discovery Channel, USA Network, History, MTV, HGTV, TNT, ESPN and FX.