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NBCU Revenue Slides 4% in Q4; Leno Ad Shuffle Not Seriously Harmful

NBCU profits slipped 30% in the fourth quarter of 2009, while revenue fell 4%, to $4.3 billion.

The plunge can be attributed in part to Universal Pictures, which saw few theatrical hits and a reduced number of DVD sales, according to MediaPost. Higher TV rights fees for NFL also contributed to the declines.

NBCU’s TV business fared better. Revenue was down 2% to $1.6 billion, while revenue at its cable nets was up 8%, to $1.3 billion.

Fourth quarter scatter helped the numbers, with CPMs up by double-digit percentages in the fourth quarter; ad prices have also been 20% higher in the first quarter. Cable rates have been up 30% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and in Q1 10.

NBC is expecting to lose $250 million on the upcoming Vancouver Winter Olympics.

Jay Leno Drama Shuffle Not Seriously Painful

Tightness in first-quarter scatter inventory is likely helping NBC successfully manage advertising around the Jay Leno-Conan O’Brien situation. Advertisers have invested some $180 million between March and May in the now-canceled Jay Leno Show. While it is unclear whether advertisers will stay with the time slot and roll their investments into the replacement programming NBC has planned or pull the money out and try to reinvest with other networks, the tight scatter situation could make it more difficult for them to find the same ratings points available anywhere else, writes Mediaweek.

Agency executives seem to approve of the replacement programming NBC has announced, which includes a Jerry Seinfeld reality show and Law & Order: SVU. Ratings are expected to be significantly higher with the new lineup: as much as 60% to 70% higher on Wednesdays with L&O and as much as 30% to 40% higher on Thursdays with the Seinfeld reality show.

Ratings on Tuesdays are not expected to be significantly higher, nor are Friday ratings.

Ad Execs Scramble to Shuffle Leno Product Placements

In addition to shuffling traditional :30 spots as Leno moves out of prime time and back to late night, NBC must work to satisfy marketers who had purchased product placement slots in The Jay Leno Show; many of those deals were inked specifically with Leno in mind, and NBC is hoping to shift those placements into The Tonight Show when Leno retakes the helm March 1.

In all, NBC has about $3 million to re-express each night, media agency sources say.